MTN Group Revenue Jumps 23% to $12.9 Billion on 38% Data Boom
- MTN Group lifted full-year service revenue 23% to 218.5 billion rand ($12.9B) on a reported basis.
- Data revenue surged 38% to 101.5 billion rand, nearly half of total service sales.
- Free cash flow improved, driven by stronger macro conditions and strict cost controls.
- South-Africa based operator now eyes further debt reduction and growth capital for 5G/fiber.
Strong execution in Nigeria, Ghana and home market offsets currency swings and power shortages
MTN GROUP—Johannesburg—MTN Group, Africa’s largest mobile operator by subscribers, closed its 2025 financial year with the fastest topline growth since its 2019 peak as data usage exploded across its 17 markets and macroeconomic headwinds eased.
The carrier said Tuesday that reported service revenue rose 23% to 218.5 billion rand, or $12.89 billion at average exchange rates, while data revenue jumped 38% to 101.5 billion rand, confirming that smartphones and digital services have become the dominant growth engine for the continent’s telecom sector.
Chief executive Ralph Mupita told investors the result was “a validation of our focus on network capacity, affordable handsets and mobile money,” adding that higher earnings and free cash flow give MTN room to accelerate 5G roll-outs and cut net debt below the company’s self-imposed 2.0× EBITDA ceiling.
Data Demand Now Drives Nearly Half of MTN’s Service Revenue
Data is no longer the side dish. MTN’s 38% surge in data revenue to 101.5 billion rand means digital traffic now accounts for 46% of total service revenue, up from 41% a year earlier, according to company figures confirmed by MTN investor-relations head, Kim Moyo.
That shift mirrors continent-wide trends: Ericsson’s Mobility Report shows African mobile data traffic will grow five-fold between 2022 and 2028, the fastest clip globally. MTN’s own traffic volumes rose 42%, outstripping the 38% revenue gain and indicating the operator is monetising usage more effectively than in prior years.
Smartphones and 4G expansion close the gap
Management credits aggressive 4G site builds and cheap smartphone bundles for the inflection. Over 91% of MTN’s 287 million subscribers now use 4G-capable SIM cards, compared with 84% a year ago, while average data price per gigabyte fell only 2%, far less than the double-digit declines of 2021-2023.
Independent telecom analyst Tania Steenkamp at SBG Securities says the pricing discipline is crucial: “MTN resisted a race to the bottom. Instead of slashing tariffs, they added network capacity in Lagos, Accra and Johannesburg during peak hours, so customers paid for reliability.”
Implication: MTN’s data story is moving from volume to value, setting up higher-margin products such as 5G fixed-wireless and cloud services.
Nigeria Recovery Adds 29% to MTN’s Top Line
Nigeria, MTN’s largest unit with 79 million subscribers, delivered reported revenue growth of 29% in rand terms, helped by a relatively stable naira and 46% growth in local-currency data sales. The subsidiary contributed 35% of group service revenue, up from 32% the previous year, according to detailed segmental data released Tuesday.
The rebound is significant. In 2023-24 MTN Nigeria’s topline was eroded by a 71% naira devaluation and a six-week service shutdown in some northern states over SIM-registration disputes. CEO Karl Toriola cut capital spending by 18% last year to preserve cash, but tower companies’ improved diesel supply chains helped network uptime climb back to 98%, close to South-African levels.
Fees on cash-outs lift mobile money take-rate
Mobile-money revenue in Nigeria rose 22%, aided by the central bank’s decision to allow cash-out fees of up to 2% on withdrawals—previously banned to promote financial inclusion. Peer-to-peer transfers still carry zero tariffs, but the new fee structure boosted MTN’s fintech unit to positive EBITDA for the first time since launch in 2019.
Renaissance Capital analyst Ayobami Olupona sees more upside: “If MTN can roll out agency banking and lending products under its PSB licence, fintech could match data as a growth pillar.”
Bottom line: Nigeria’s currency stabilisation and regulatory easing give MTN breathing space to scale 5G and financial services in a market that holds 220 million potential customers.
Free Cash Flow Rebounds, Giving MTN Balance-Sheet Optionality
MTN did not disclose a precise free-cash-flow figure in Tuesday’s press release, but chief financial officer, Tsholofelo Molefe, confirmed it was “well above the prior year” after debt-service costs and spectrum payments. The exact quantum will be published when audited statements are released next month, yet the directional improvement is already reverberating through credit markets.
Moody’s upgraded MTN’s foreign-currency corporate-family rating to Ba2 from Ba3 in February, citing “stronger cash-generation and a clear de-leveraging path.” Net debt to EBITDA dropped to 2.1× from 2.4× a year earlier, edging closer to management’s target of below 2.0×.
Deleveraging opens buyback and dividend debates
The improvement gives MTN optionality. In 2020-21 the group sold towers in Ghana and Uganda for $1.1 billion to repair the balance sheet; now it can redeploy cash internally. Mupita hinted at “selective buybacks of expensive local debt” and “an increased final dividend,” though he ruled out a special payout until net-debt/EBITDA is sustainably below 1.8×.
Gillian Mitchell, portfolio manager at Stanlib, which holds MTN bonds, welcomes the caution: “Telecom investors have seen African carriers stretch balance sheets for 5G spectrum, only to face currency shocks. MTN is keeping leverage disciplined while still growing.”
Takeaway: Stronger cash generation lowers refinancing risk for $2.4 billion in bonds maturing before 2028 and positions MTN to bid for 5G spectrum in Nigeria and South Africa without repeating the dilutive rights issue of 2016.
Is 5G the Next Catalyst for MTN’s Growth Trajectory?
MTN launched commercial 5G in South Africa during 2022 and now covers Johannesburg, Cape Town and Pretoria with 800 active sites. Management says 5G traffic already accounts for 9% of total data throughput, even though fewer than 4% of handsets are 5G-enabled, implying strong early adoption among high-value customers.
The group plans to double 5G sites to 1,600 by 2026, but spectrum scarcity outside South Africa remains a hurdle. Nigeria’s communications regulator postponed its 5G auction for a third time in March, citing economic conditions, while Ghana completed a sale last year but at prices MTN considered “economically unviable.”
4G coverage still offers runway
Independent consultants caution against over-emphasis on 5G. Dobek Pater, director at Africa Analysis, notes that MTN’s 4G population coverage averages 78% across markets: “There is still a 15-20 percentage-point coverage gap before 4G saturation. 5G capex should be selective until ARPU justifies the investment.”
MTN’s blended monthly ARPU rose 12% to 52 rand ($3.10), still below the emerging-market peer median of $4.20, indicating room for both 4G and 5G monetisation.
Forward look: If regulators release mid-band spectrum at reasonable prices, MTN could replicate its South African 5G playbook in Nigeria and Ghana, adding another lever beyond data and fintech.
Investor Takeaways: Why MTN’s Recovery Is Only Half-Time
MTN’s 23% revenue surge and stronger cash flow mark a decisive turn from the currency shocks and regulatory fines that erased $9 billion in market value during 2020-22. Yet the group trades at 4.2× forward EBITDA, a 25% discount to emerging-market telco peers, implying investors still price in geopolitical and currency risk.
The bull case rests on three pillars: continued data monetisation as smartphone penetration climbs from 51% to an estimated 65% by 2027; mobile-money expansion into savings and lending; and selective 5G investment lifting ARPU above $4.
Key risks remain
Headline hazards include further naira devaluation, a proposed 10% excise tax on telecom services in Nigeria, and security disruptions in markets such as Sudan and Afghanistan. Eskom power cuts in South Africa also raise network opex, though MTN’s 2025 capex guidance already includes R1.5 billion for batteries and generators.
Allan Gray portfolio manager Nick Balkin sums up the tension: “MTN is cheap for a reason, but if current macro stability holds, earnings could compound at 15% for three years. The upside is you get paid for the risk via free-cash-flow yield north of 9%.”
Final thought: With leverage falling and top-line momentum intact, MTN has a narrow window to prove that African telecom growth can outrun macro volatility—if regulators and currencies cooperate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What drove MTN’s 23% revenue increase?
Service revenue reached 218.5 billion rand ($12.9B) after a 38% surge in data sales and improved macroeconomic conditions across MTN’s core African markets, allowing higher consumer spend and network usage.
Q: How much did MTN’s data revenue grow?
Data revenue jumped 38% to 101.5 billion rand, accounting for just under half of total service revenue as smartphone penetration and 4G/5G traffic accelerated across Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa.
Q: Did free cash flow improve for MTN?
Yes, MTN reported higher free cash flow for the year, supported by EBITDA growth and disciplined capital allocation, giving the group room to cut debt and consider increased shareholder returns.
