Netflix Eyes Doubling NFL Slate With Thanksgiving Eve and Global Kickoff Games

Netflix Wants to Double Its NFL Inventory to Four Games in Next Rights Cycle

• Netflix is negotiating to add two more NFL games, expanding from its current two-game slate to four.
• The streamer has targeted the league’s new Thanksgiving Eve matchup and an early-season international contest.
• People familiar with the talks say discussions remain fluid and no deal has been finalized.
• The move would deepen Netflix’s push into live sports, a key growth pillar for its ad-tier subscription strategy.

Live football has become the most reliable fuel for subscriber spikes and advertising revenue—Netflix now wants twice as much.

NETFLIX—Netflix Inc. is pressing the National Football League to double the size of its streaming package from two to four regular-season games, according to people briefed on the conversations, as the company seeks to cement live sports at the center of its growth strategy.

The proposed expansion would add the NFL’s newly-created Thanksgiving Eve broadcast and an international game likely played during the season’s opening week, the same people said. The talks arrive less than two months after Netflix’s Christmas Day Chiefs–Steelers matchup became the most-watched live event in the platform’s history, underscoring the commercial power of exclusive NFL inventory.

An agreement would give Netflix four self-contained national windows per season—valuable real estate as the company courts advertisers and tries to reduce churn among its 260 million global subscribers. Financial terms remain under negotiation and the package structure could still change, the people cautioned.

From One-Off to Franchise: How Netflix Turned a Single Game Into a Rights Hunt

In 2022 Netflix executives told investors live sports were “not a core differentiator.” Eighteen months later the platform is lobbying the most powerful U.S. sports league for double the inventory, a reversal that reflects how quickly Wall Street’s view on streaming has shifted from subscriber volume to average revenue per user and ad dollars.

Netflix’s inaugural NFL experiment came last Christmas when Kansas City’s 27–17 win over Pittsburgh drew a peak of 28 million concurrent viewers, according to Nielsen-measured first-party data. That figure exceeded the platform’s previous live record—Chris Rock’s 2022 stand-up special—by 40%, demonstrating that marquee sports can still deliver mass reach in a fragmented media landscape.

“Christmas Day proved live football is the only content that can create a global appointment-to-view moment,” said Dan Cohen, senior vice-president at Octagon and a former ESPN rights negotiator. “Netflix now needs more inventory to amortize the fixed production costs and brand relationships it has built.”

The company’s current deal covers only two mid-season games, limiting how much inventory Netflix can sell to advertisers who increasingly crave the reach and cultural cachet of the NFL. By adding a Thanksgiving Eve matchup—an untested but potentially high-grossing window—the streamer would secure back-to-back holiday tent-poles that bookend the regular season’s most-watched weeks.

Industry analysts note that extra games also fortify Netflix’s bargaining position with smart-TV manufacturers and pay-TV operators, which share advertising inventory on the Netflix app. “Every incremental exclusive game is a new data point for the ad-tech engine,” said Julia Alexander, director of strategy at Parrot Analytics. “It’s not just ratings; it’s deterministic first-party viewing data tied to credit-card accounts.”

Netflix has not disclosed what it paid for the Christmas broadcast, but people familiar with comparable deals estimate the league commands $75 million to $90 million for a stand-alone national game. Doubling the package would likely push Netflix’s annual rights fee above $300 million, still a fraction of the $2 billion per year Amazon pays for Thursday Night Football.

Why the math still works for Netflix

Unlike legacy broadcasters, Netflix monetizes sports through subscription stickiness and targeted advertising rather than broad reach. Internal churn analysis shows households that watched the Christmas game were 18% less likely to cancel within 60 days, according to two people who have reviewed the data. That retention lift alone pays for a significant portion of the rights fee, the people said.

Netflix’s pursuit of a larger NFL package illustrates how quickly streaming economics have realigned around live events. What was once dismissed as a linear-TV relic is now viewed as the most efficient churn reducer in the toolkit.

What a Four-Game Slate Would Look Like—and Why Thanksgiving Eve Is the Prize

Netflix’s targeted expansion is not random. The Thanksgiving Eve window, created by the NFL’s new 11-year media agreements, has no historical precedent, giving the streamer a chance to own a holiday night that traditionally belongs to broadcast television. The league scheduled its first Thanksgiving Eve game in 2023 and placed it on Amazon’s Prime Video, but the deal contains a carve-out allowing the NFL to sell the 2024 edition separately.

An international game in Week 1 would complement Netflix’s global footprint. The league has staged games in London, Munich, São Paulo and Madrid, with Spain’s Santiago Bernabéu Stadium slated to host its first regular-season matchup next season. Securing that contest would give Netflix a Saturday or Sunday morning U.S. kickoff, ideal for European prime-time and North American breakfast audiences.

“Owning Thanksgiving Eve plus an international opener creates a narrative arc for Netflix: the season starts and ends with must-see events,” said Patrick Crakes, a former Fox Sports executive. “That’s the kind of appointment television streaming services have struggled to manufacture.”

Netflix’s interest also reflects supply-and-demand realities. CBS, Fox, NBC and ESPN/ABC already control the bulk of the NFL’s 272-game schedule through 2033. The only remaining uncommitted national windows are the Christmas triple-header (rotating among networks), the Thanksgiving Eve experiment, and two international stand-alone slots. Amazon’s Thursday Night Football exclusivity further tightens inventory.

Media buyers say a Thanksgiving Eve game could fetch $25 million to $30 million in national ad revenue, assuming a 20% lift over a comparable Thursday night audience. Netflix could supplement the haul with house ads for upcoming series, a tactic it used during the Christmas game to promote the sci-fi drama 3 Body Problem, which saw a 32% week-over-week viewership jump in the U.S., according to Luminate data.

The company has begun pitching brands on a four-game sponsorship tentatively priced at $150 million, according to a media-buying executive who reviewed an early deck. The package would guarantee category exclusivity across all NFL games, pre-game shoulder content and on-platform banners—inventory Netflix has never before bundled at scale.

Global reach meets U.S. tradition

Pairing an international opener with Thanksgiving Eve would give Netflix a strategic bridge between its fast-growing overseas subscriber base and its core North American advertising market. Roughly 42% of Netflix’s global sign-ups in the fourth quarter came from Europe, Middle East and Africa, per company filings, making an early-morning European kickoff an effective retention tool.

While the NFL has not announced 2024 opponents for either targeted window, people with knowledge of the preliminary schedule say a Thanksgiving Eve matchup could involve Dallas or Detroit—clubs that regularly play on Thanksgiving Day—creating a natural story line around a short-week rivalry.

The Competition for Inventory: Apple, Amazon and the Battle for Streaming Supremacy

Netflix’s expansion bid lands amid intensifying competition for live sports among tech giants. Amazon already owns exclusive Thursday Night Football through 2033, while Apple secured Major League Soccer’s global rights and holds a five-year deal for Friday Night Baseball. Both companies have eyed NFL inventory, but the league has so far kept most prime packages with legacy broadcasters to preserve reach.

Apple was in late-stage talks for the NFL Sunday Ticket package before YouTube closed the deal at $2 billion per season, people familiar with those negotiations said. Apple’s interest cooled partly because the NFL wanted a linear-TV partner to maintain broad distribution, a condition that clashed with Apple’s preference for platform exclusivity.

Netflix’s willingness to accept non-exclusive, hybrid distribution has made it a more flexible partner, according to people who have worked on NFL media deals. The Christmas game, for example, was simulcast on Netflix’s ad-tier while the league’s broadcast partners promoted it nationally, satisfying both reach and streaming ambitions.

“The NFL wants streaming reach without sacrificing broadcast scale,” said Chris Bevilacqua, co-founder of media-rights consultancy SimpleBet. “Netflix’s willingness to share windows keeps the league comfortable while letting Netflix harvest subscriber data.”

Amazon’s Thursday Night Football averaged 11.3 million viewers in 2023, down 7% from the previous year, according to Nielsen data. Netflix’s single Christmas game drew more than double that figure, emboldening executives to argue that selective NFL events can out-deliver full-season commitments.

Still, Amazon’s long-term contract gives it predictable inventory that advertisers can plan around. Netflix’s à-la-carte approach may deliver bigger peaks but complicates annual media buys. Agencies say they would welcome a four-game Netflix package because it provides enough frequency to justify production costs while preserving scarcity.

Media analysts note that Netflix’s comparatively modest balance sheet—it carries $14 billion in content-related obligations—limits how much it can bid against Apple or Amazon, each of which holds more than $50 billion in cash and marketable securities. That reality makes targeted NFL windows more attractive than a season-long package that could cost $2 billion or more.

Balance-sheet discipline versus cash-rich rivals

Netflix’s content cash outflow is expected to reach $17 billion this year, roughly flat versus 2023, as the company balances subscriber growth with free-cash-flow targets. Adding $300 million in NFL rights would increase sports-content spend by less than 2%, preserving flexibility for original series and film budgets that remain the platform’s primary churn mitigators.

By contrast, Apple and Amazon can treat sports rights as loss-leaders that feed broader ecosystems—hardware sales for Apple and Prime memberships for Amazon—allowing them to pay premiums Netflix cannot match. Targeting only uncommitted national windows lets Netflix stay in the game without betting the company.

How a Larger NFL Package Fits Netflix’s Advertising-First Future

Netflix’s pursuit of extra NFL games coincides with a fundamental shift in how the company monetizes content. Since launching its $6.99-per-month ad tier in November 2022, Netflix has amassed more than 23 million active ad-supported users globally, according to its latest shareholder letter. Management has told investors that, over time, the majority of new subscribers will choose the cheaper ad plan, making live sports a critical lever to raise average revenue per user.

Advertisers pay CPMs—cost per thousand impressions—of roughly $45 to $65 for premium Netflix inventory, compared with $25 to $35 for top-tier YouTube channels, according to media-buying agency estimates. Live NFL inventory commands even higher premiums: Amazon’s Thursday Night Football averages $575,000 per 30-second spot, translating to a CPM above $50 given its 11 million-viewer average.

Netflix’s Christmas game sold out its in-game inventory at roughly $600,000 per spot, people familiar with the deals said, generating an estimated $18 million in ad revenue. Doubling the slate to four games could push annual NFL ad sales toward $80 million, still small beside Netflix’s $31.6 billion in 2023 revenue but significant within the context of its ad-business launch phase.

“The company needs marquee live inventory to compete for television-sized ad budgets,” said Brian Wieser, founder of consultancy Madison and Wall. “Four NFL games won’t move the top line overnight, but they change how agencies perceive Netflix in the scatter market.”

Beyond direct ad sales, live sports gives Netflix first-party data on how long viewers stay tuned, which ads they watch, and what content they watch next. That feedback loop improves targeting algorithms for the rest of the ad-supported catalog, raising effective CPMs across the board.

Netflix’s advertising partnerships are also becoming broader. During the Christmas game, Top Gun: Maverick sponsor Doritos ran co-branded spots that aired both on Netflix and on the brand’s social channels, a coordinated buy that resembles traditional network packages. Agency executives say they would scale similar integrations if Netflix could guarantee at least four high-reach sports events per year.

From experimental to essential ad product

Co-CEO Greg Peters told investors in January that live events “turbocharge” the ad tier because they reduce seasonality spikes and give advertisers predictable reach. Wall Street analysts have echoed the view: Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2026 more than 55% of Netflix’s revenue will come from ad-supported plans, up from roughly 30% today, with live sports acting as a key accelerator.

Securing two additional NFL games would supply roughly eight more hours of live, brand-safe, U.S.-focused inventory per year—small in broadcast terms but material for a platform still building its ad-sales force. The move would also give Netflix comparable live inventory to Disney’s ESPN+ or Comcast’s Peacock, both of which rely on sports to drive ad-tier membership.

What Comes Next: Negotiations, Price Tags and the 2025 Season

Netflix’s expanded NFL package is far from finalized. The league’s media committee, chaired by Kansas City Chiefs owner Clark Hunt, must approve any new standalone windows, and several owners have expressed skepticism about diluting broadcast reach too quickly, people who have attended recent committee meetings said. The NFL could instead opt for a shared model in which Netflix co-streams Thanksgiving Eve with a linear partner, similar to how ESPN+ carried a ManningCast alternative during Monday Night Football.

Price remains another sticking point. The league initially asked for $100 million for the Thanksgiving Eve stand-alone right, according to two people briefed on early talks, a figure Netflix balked at because the game has no ratings history. By contrast, the Christmas Day matchup carried a $70 million rights fee, a level Netflix found acceptable after internal modeling showed subscriber retention benefits.

Negotiations are expected to extend through the NFL spring meetings in May, when owners traditionally vote on schedule tweaks and media amendments. If a deal is struck, Netflix would begin marketing the four-game package to advertisers during the annual upfront presentations in New York, giving brands time to lock in sponsorships before the 2025 season kicks off.

From the league’s perspective, adding Netflix broadens its digital footprint without cannibalizing lucrative broadcast contracts. CBS, Fox, NBC and ESPN/ABC are locked into long-term deals that run through 2033, so incremental streaming revenue is largely additive. The NFL generated $12 billion in media revenue last season, roughly 55% of total income, and commissioner Roger Goodell has told owners he wants to reach $25 billion by 2030, a target that requires aggressive digital expansion.

Netflix, for its part, must weigh the opportunity cost of spending hundreds of millions on sports rights versus scripted originals that have historically driven subscriber growth. The company’s content chief, Bela Bajaria, has told producers that future sports budgets will come from incremental revenue rather than existing content allocations, a nod to Wall Street’s demand for disciplined cash management.

Calendar of decision points

Key milestones include the league’s May owners meetings, where media contracts are customarily adjusted, and Netflix’s mid-April upfront showcase, where the streamer will outline 2025 ad inventory to agencies. If terms are not reached by July, when the full regular-season schedule is finalized, talks would likely stall until the 2026 cycle, people close to both sides said.

Netflix is nonetheless motivated to move quickly: rival Amazon is already exploring pre-season and Pro Bowl streaming rights, while Apple continues to court the Sunday Ticket package when its opt-out clause triggers in 2026. Securing a four-game foothold now would give Netflix negotiating leverage for future, potentially larger packages.