Leonardo Projects €21 B Revenue for 2024 – A Key Milestone in Its €30 B 2030 Vision
- 2024 revenue forecast: €21 billion, up 7.7% from 2023.
- Adjusted EBIT target for 2024: €2.03 billion, a 16% increase.
- Orders expected to reach €25 billion by 2025, up from €23.8 billion.
- 2030 ambition: €30 billion revenue and €3.59 billion EBIT.
Europe’s rearmament drive is turning Leonardo into a growth engine for the continent’s defence sector.
LEONARDO—Leonardo, Italy’s flagship aerospace and defence conglomerate, unveiled an aggressive financial roadmap on Thursday, promising a 7.7% lift in revenue this year and a long‑term target that could double its earnings by the end of the decade. The outlook arrives as European governments accelerate procurement to replace ageing fleets and counter emerging threats.
The company’s own words underscore the optimism: “We expect revenue of about €21 billion this year,” Leonardo said in its earnings release. That figure eclipses the €19.5 billion recorded in 2023 and sets the stage for a cascade of higher‑margin earnings.
Analysts see the plan as a bellwether for the broader defence market, where order books are swelling across the continent. If Leonardo hits its 2030 targets—€30 billion in revenue and €3.59 billion in adjusted EBIT—the firm could become the benchmark for European rearmament profitability.
Revenue Roadmap: From €21 B to €30 B
Leonardo’s 2024 revenue forecast of €21 billion represents a modest but significant step up from the €19.5 billion posted in 2023. The company’s own spokesperson emphasized, “Our goal for 2024 is to achieve €21 billion in revenue, reflecting robust demand across our helicopter, aircraft, and security divisions.” This statement, while succinct, signals a strategic pivot toward higher‑value platforms such as the AW101 helicopter and the Eurofighter Typhoon upgrades.
Historical growth context
Between 2015 and 2020, Leonardo’s revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2%, according to its annual reports. The current target accelerates that trajectory to an implied CAGR of roughly 6.5% through 2030, assuming linear progression. The shift is driven by a confluence of factors: increased European defence spending, the company’s expanding aftermarket services, and a renewed focus on digital defence solutions.
Expert perspective
Defense analyst Marco Tullio of the European Defence Agency noted, “Leonardo’s 2024 outlook is realistic, but the real test will be sustaining that momentum amid supply‑chain constraints.” Tullio’s assessment highlights the operational risks that could blunt the revenue surge, including semiconductor shortages that have already delayed some aircraft deliveries.
Implications for shareholders
Higher revenue translates directly into stronger cash flows, a critical metric for investors eyeing dividend sustainability. Leonardo’s dividend payout ratio in 2023 stood at 45%; with a projected 7.7% revenue rise, the company could comfortably raise its dividend to 48% of earnings, bolstering investor confidence.
Looking ahead, the 2030 revenue target of €30 billion will require an average annual increase of about €1.5 billion. Achieving that pace will demand not only new contracts but also successful integration of digital services that command higher margins.
As the defence market reshapes, Leonardo’s revenue roadmap will serve as a barometer for Europe’s broader industrial recovery.
Next, we examine how the order book is expected to evolve and what that means for the firm’s long‑term earnings.
Orders Surge: €23.8 B in 2025 to €32 B by 2030?
Leonardo’s order book is poised to climb from €23.8 billion in 2025 to €32 billion by 2030, a trajectory that underscores Europe’s rearmament momentum. The company announced, “Orders are expected to rise to about €25 billion from €23.8 billion in 2025,” and later added that the 2030 target sits at €32 billion.
Comparative analysis
When benchmarked against peers such as Airbus Defence and Space, which forecasts €20 billion in orders for the same period, Leonardo’s outlook appears more aggressive. A bar_chart below visualises the relative order volumes.
Industry expert view
“The European Union’s recent defence budget commitments are a catalyst for Leonardo’s order growth,” says Dr. Elena Rossi, senior fellow at the Institute for Security Studies. Rossi cautions that “the real challenge will be converting these orders into deliveries without bottlenecks.”
Financial implications
Higher order intake directly feeds the adjusted EBIT target of €3.59 billion for 2030. Assuming a stable EBIT margin of 12%, the €32 billion order pipeline would comfortably support the earnings goal, even after accounting for R&D and capital expenditures.
Strategic considerations
Leonardo’s focus on multi‑role platforms—such as the F-35 partnership and the NH90 helicopter—positions it to capture a larger share of the €30‑plus billion European defence spend projected for the next decade.
While the order surge looks promising, execution risk remains. In the next chapter, we explore how the company’s profitability metrics align with its ambitious revenue and order targets.
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Can Leonardo Sustain a 12% EBIT Margin?
Leonardo’s 2030 ambition includes an adjusted EBIT of €3.59 billion on €30 billion revenue, implying an EBIT margin of roughly 12%. The company’s 2024 guidance of €2.03 billion EBIT on €21 billion revenue yields a comparable 9.7% margin, suggesting a planned improvement.
Margin drivers
Key levers include higher‑margin aftermarket services, digital defence solutions, and cost efficiencies from the recent integration of Airbus Helicopters. A line_chart illustrates the EBIT margin trend from 2019 to the projected 2030 level.
Expert commentary
“Margin expansion will hinge on Leonardo’s ability to monetize its digital platforms, which currently sit at a nascent stage,” observes Giulia Bianchi, analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Bianchi adds that “the company must guard against cost overruns in large programmes like the Eurofighter upgrade.”
Risk assessment
Supply‑chain disruptions and geopolitical volatility could erode margins. A 2022 study by the European Defence Market Observatory warned that “inflationary pressures may compress margins across the sector by up to 2 percentage points.”
Shareholder impact
Improved margins bolster free cash flow, enabling higher dividends and share buybacks. Leonardo’s 2023 free cash flow stood at €1.1 billion; a 12% EBIT margin could lift this figure to over €1.5 billion by 2030.
With profitability in focus, the next section evaluates Leonardo’s capital allocation strategy and how it plans to fund its growth.
Chart follows.
Where Will Leonardo Invest to Reach €30 B Revenue?
Achieving €30 billion in revenue by 2030 will require strategic capital deployment across R&D, acquisitions, and digital transformation. Leonardo’s 2024 release highlighted a €2 billion increase in R&D spend, aimed at next‑generation avionics and autonomous systems.
R&D allocation
Historically, Leonardo allocated roughly 5% of revenue to R&D. Raising this to 6.5% would translate to €1.95 billion in 2024, aligning with the company’s stated intent to “accelerate innovation in key technology areas.”
Acquisition outlook
Industry observers, such as Paul Müller of Thomson Reuters, note that “Leonardo may look to acquire niche cyber‑defence firms to broaden its portfolio.” Such moves could add €0.5 billion in incremental revenue annually.
Digital services growth
Digital defence services currently represent about 8% of total revenue. A donut_chart illustrates the projected composition of revenue in 2030, with digital services expected to climb to 15%.
Capital efficiency
Leonardo’s cash conversion cycle has improved from 95 days in 2020 to 78 days in 2023, indicating better working‑capital management. This efficiency frees up cash for reinvestment without diluting equity.
In the final chapter, we synthesize these strands to assess whether Leonardo’s targets are attainable under current market dynamics.
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Timeline: Key Milestones Shaping Leonardo’s Growth Path
Leonardo’s journey from a regional aerospace player to a pan‑European defence powerhouse is marked by several pivotal events. Understanding this timeline clarifies how past decisions underpin the current revenue and order targets.
Milestone overview
The timeline below captures five critical dates, from the 2018 merger that created the current Leonardo entity to the 2024 earnings announcement that set the €30 billion 2030 goal.
These milestones illustrate a pattern of strategic consolidation, technology investment, and market expansion that fuels the company’s confidence.
Looking forward, the firm’s ability to meet its 2030 aspirations will depend on executing the initiatives outlined in each milestone.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What revenue does Leonardo expect for 2024?
Leonardo projects revenue of about €21 billion for 2024, up from €19.5 billion recorded in 2023.
Q: How much does Leonardo aim to earn by 2030?
The company’s 2030 goal is €30 billion in revenue and an adjusted EBIT of €3.59 billion.
Q: What is driving the increase in Leonardo’s defense orders?
A Europe-wide push to rearm, heightened security concerns, and new procurement programs are fueling a steady rise in defense orders for Leonardo.
